How can climate change influence flood insurance? This is what a pair of papers published in npj Natural Hazards and Nature Water hopes to address as a team of researchers led by Arizona State University investigated a connection between increased rainfall events and flood insurance debt. This study has the potential to help climate scientists, legislators, and the public better understand the impact of climate change on flood insurance and the steps that can be taken to improve homeowners from footing the bill.
For the two studies, the researchers used a combination of machine learning and other statistical analysis methods to ascertain how increased flooding and extreme rainfall events have not only contributed to substantially higher flood insurance claims, but that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is on the verge of insolvency. Since 1968, the NFIP has been the go-to organization for flood risk preparedness and management, along with financially compensating homeowners for flood damage.
In the end, the researchers determined that current flood preparedness and management methods, some of which are employed by the NFIP, are outdated and in need of an overhaul. They found that weather events known as “hyperclusterting”, which are large-scale flood events that can last up to several week, as comprising the majority of flood insurance claims. Finally, the researchers found that homes that reside within 100-year flood zones, meaning they only experience floods every 100 years, could experience floods annually.
“We need a redesign of the NFIP, disaster declaration funding and buyout programs, in conjunction with state- and community-level cofunding and private market catastrophe bonds,” said Dr. Upmanu Lall, who is a Professor in the School of Complex Adaptive Systems at Arizona State University and a co-author on both studies. “Aggregation of risk is important at all levels to ensure better pricing and liquidity.”
How will climate change contribute to flood insurance decline in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: npj Natural Hazards, Nature Water, EurekAlert!
