A study published in Economic Modeling evaluated the connection between state cannabis laws and national crime rates. Currently, medical cannabis is legal in 42 states, and the District of Columbia, and recreational cannabis is legal in 25 states. As an increasing number of states amend their cannabis laws, policymakers and researchers have paid more attention to crime rates. The study’s findings indicated an association between cannabis legalization and declining crime rates.
The researchers analyzed data on crime rates from the FBI Uniformed Crime Reports (UCR) and arrest data from 1995 to 2019. They also examined the relationship between cannabis legalization and crime rates using state-level panel data compiled from a wide variety of sources. The team assessed how specification choices influence estimated impacts on property crime using both difference-in-differences and synthetic difference-in-differences approaches. Analytic models revealed how different forms of cannabis regulation are associated with different patterns in criminal activity. Data analysis suggested more significant declines in property crime rates in states bordering Mexico.
The study was consistent with other prior studies highlighting that state-regulated cannabis policy was associated with decreases in overall criminal activity. Specifically, the researchers found an association between medical cannabis legalization and lower property crime, while recreational use legalization is associated with decreases in violent crime. The effects of lower crime rates occur gradually after legalization, but they become more pronounced over several years.
The study emphasizes the need for policymakers to consider the various impacts of medical and recreational legalization as they refine and implement cannabis laws. The research team recommended that lawmakers remain aware of this legal heterogeneity when crafting policy, as well as the time-varying impacts of medical and recreational legalization. States with more recently approved cannabis programs should closely monitor crime rates after implementation.
Sources: Economic Modeling, NORML
